Underdog Money Lines Week 15/Bowls (2011)
Week 14: 0-2, -2.00 units
2011 YTD: 28-55, +17.50 units
UConn and Syracuse were both great plays, both gave up 2 defensive scores which was the difference. You play that weekend over again 10 times, I get at least a split in 7 of them. I am going to list some lean or play for every game (in some cases opposing leans because I’m not sure yet).
Official MLD Recommendations (4): Marshall +160, Reno +220, Air Force +145, NIU +105
Official Spread and Total Recommendations (6): Tem/Wyo OVER 47, Utah State -2.5, Boise State -14, NW/A&M OVER 64.5, Florida/OSU 2H UNDER 22.5, SMU/Pitt UNDER 47
December 7th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
BORING MATH STUFF
Market performance Week 15/B: don’t have 2007 done, I will at some point in the next few weeks. You can see the number of bowls increasing recently. For the last few seasons Army and Navy have squared off in the week after championship week, that is really what Wk 15 means. Every few years you get some big dog winners in bowls, but the upsets that tend to happen are smaller. Things are at the most “predictable” and “stable” point of the season, and you really aren’t going to be able to pull the wool over the eyes of the linesmakers, they know everything by now, and hopefully so do we. Last year, not a single dog won outright after Dec. 31st, and most didn’t even cover. That was on the heals of favs starting off bowl season 6-0 ATS.
Week 15/B 2005, 12-16, +11.08 units
Week 15/B 2006, 10-22, -2.76 units
Week 15/B 2008, 14-20, +1.65 units
Week 15/B 2009, 17-18, +11.90 units
Week 15/B 2010, 12-24, -1.20 units
My performance Week 15/B: a couple years I didn’t make bets. Don’t recall if I hated the value or match ups, but traditionally I haven’t been real active in bowls. I think in 07 I was just pissed off at getting moosed on my first two bets so I mailed it in. This year I told myself it would be different, but I’m not so sure now that I am seeing these match ups. I still think back fondly on that stupid Nebraska-Michigan game in 05 where the officials helped me win.
Week 14 2005, 2-2, +3.07 units
Week 14 2006, 1-2, -0.65 units
Week 14 2007, no action
Week 14 2008, 3-3, +3.05 units
Week 14 2009, no action
Week 14 2010, 1-1, +0.25 units
—————————————————————————-
Turnovers LW: -10 (fuck you Syracuse)
Turnovers YTD: -28 (one of these years I will keep it under 20, not this year)
Theoretical Next Three Plays LW: 0-3, -3.00 units (Fresno, FAU, Idaho)
Theoretical Next Three Plays YTD: 12-30, -0.30 units
Correlated Spread Plays: LW: 0-2, -2.00 units
Correlated Spread Plays: YTD: 45-36-2, +5.40 units
Money lines paid out almost 12 units better than spreads would have, on the particular dogs I selected this year.
Moose Account LW: 0-0, 0.00 units (pissed at Cuse and UConn, but not mooses)
Moose Account YTD: 1-0, +3.90 units – Wyoming/BG
December 7th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
I should clarify though, Temple/Wyoming is a full spread/total unit, I’m not going small on that one.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:32 am
I am having a semi-tough time with this bowl card. May start to write up some of them early next week. Traditionally I handicap games better with a spread of anywhere from 7-17. I don’t handle real big spreads well, and I am flipping coins on the little ones, like everybody else. 16 of the 35 bowls are currently 3 pts or smaller. I will be amazed if I can find 12 MLDs I really like.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
I am going to cap the ULL and Utah State games tonight in just a little more detail. May or may not have plays, but should at least have a paragraph.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Just sent you a text.
Interested to hear your ULL thoughts; have pretty much made my mind up on the Utah St/Ohio game. I have a lot of strong leans, guess it’s just a matter of how long i want to wait to make plays.
December 9th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Seeing just a bit of downward movement on the Utah State line here. Going to let it run its course, who knows, maybe a 2 or 1.5 is in store. My feeling is that while the Ohio front seven has healed and improved a bit as the season has worn on, I think Utah St will find running lanes. They can’t win without running it effectively though. Their passing game is viable, but it is complimentary, and in the context of an ineffective ground game Kennedy/Keaton would probably struggle through the air. I like Coach Andersen a lot and I think he will come up with a gameplan to limit Tettleton and Co. He doesn’t have much talent on defense but he gets the most out of them. I would recommend that if you play Utah State you take less than 3. 3 is probably borderline in a lot of ways, and at 3.5 that would be dangerous.
After consulting with one of my oracles, I think the New Orleans Bowl is best left alone. I can make a case for the over, under, dog, and favorite, and when that happens you know you are looking at a game that you shouldn’t be involved in. For those of you who like the game and are looking to bet it, just keep these differing factors in mind: motivation stronger for ULL but SDSU plays hard, HFA in favor of ULL but perhaps not that significant, Rocky Long bad in bowls but usually was coaching the inferior side which isn’t the case here, ULL can score with their defense and have done so over and over again, the difference in the total will likely come to down to whether or not Hillman is breaking long runs or whether they are marching the field.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
Added Utah State. If it goes to 2 I’ll be extremely annoyed, but if it had gone to 3 and I wasn’t on board yet I would hate myself.
December 12th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
There it is, a 2 at Bookmaker. The next time I guess a line move right will be the first.
December 12th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Time to get the show on the road here.
St. Petersburg Bowl: leans are going to be on the under and to the dog. This one is tricky to cap. Often I am wrong on games like this, but I think this is a spot where it seems easy to bet the small favorite so I am fading myself here. FIU are media darlings right now, with Hilton, and a good young coach, they will have some small measure of home field advantage, or at least regional advantage, and ESPN will be slobbering all over them to the point that you know the color commentators will make it awkward for everyone watching. With that said, I actually think Marshall is the better football team. Their defense does come and go a little bit, especially when they aren’t at home, but their athletes should be on par with anything FIU has, maybe sans Hilton. Regarding Rakeem Cato, I would say take him or leave him. He is standard fare at this point in his career, I don’t expect him to win or lose the game. The game will be won and lost in the trenches and I like the big ugglies that Marshall has better than those at FIU. I wouldn’t say the wrong team is favored here, as I made FIU a small favorite in my line guesses thread, but I would say there is little if anything to separate the two of them on the field, including results against common opponents.
December 12th, 2011 at 3:35 pm
FIU is an average SBC team. I agree — hold your nose and bet Marshall.
December 12th, 2011 at 4:13 pm
The next two games are two of the larger spreads of all the bowl season. In each case I lean to the favorite. I am far more likely to play Boise than TCU, but each could make it on my card, and its totally possible that neither will make it as well. In the TCU game I like the OVER nearly as much as the side. Not so for the Boise-ASU game where I think BSU could put the clamps (relatively speaking) on Arizona State’s offense, but I’m not totally sold on that happening either. Their defensive line is still one of the nation’s best, I think that got lost along with many other facts, when they lost to TCU.
Speaking just generally here, rather than to the particulars of each match up, I see a couple schools who are nearly of a BCS bowl quality, facing in one case a team who is disappointed and has mailed in its season, and another facing a team that is rolling momentumwise, but is not in the same stratosphere athletically. That is to say if – IF – Boise and TCU show up with an “A” effort they are playing over-matched opponents. I wish ASU had some interim guy to create chaos, but they will have Erickson for this one, and I bet he gets a semi-decent performance out of them.
Poinsettia: La Tech’s 8 wins are for the most part unsightly. Nevada is probably the best, although I guess I would listen to an argument for Ole Miss or Utah State. Either way, you get the point. TCU for their part, has difficultly covering as a favorite. I won’t rehash those disasters as its nearly as torturous and painful as making a Vietnam vet watch The Deer Hunter. Although the prisoners of war at least had a 5/6 shot with the guns they had to use. When you bet on TCU in a bowl game that is more akin to playing Russian roulette with a semi-auto.
The concern for the OVER is that Gary Patterson NEVER runs it up. He is too much of a “good” guy and “class act” to do that. SDSU held them to 27, they got at least 30 in every other game, and often more than that. While LT plays fast, they also have offensive fits and spurts, in addition to an under-appreciated defense. They seem like they should be an OVER team, but perception doesn’t necessarily match reality in this case. Giving Patterson multiple weeks of prep and gameplanning for that team, while giving LT a cooling off period might be recipe for a donkey game, and that is ultimately why my lean is still tilted toward the side than total. I know that I cannot back LT, and I equally know that I couldn’t play this under. One TD per team per quarter sends this over.
Las Vegas: Just tough to really know what these teams are going to bring. I would think Boise wants to send off Moore in good fashion, and unlike Patterson, Peterson has no problem tacking on numbers to the scoreboard, hence the favorite lean. I think Boise will put together a good defensive gameplan here. Peterson’s teams tend to be ready to go on that side of the ball given preparation time. For all the highly touted athletes on the Sun Devil stop unit, and for all their previous production in past years, they are now soft and squishy on that side of the ball. That is what happens when you switch from a pro set to a spread attack, your defense loses its toughness because of the scheme they practice against.
I think about 2/3rds of bowls need to be handicapped based on injuries, personnel, schemes, match ups, stats, blah blah blah, just like in the regular season. But in bowls you have about a 1/3rd of the games (let’s say 10 to 12) where the only thing that matters is intangibles: motivation, momentum, coaching situation, ticket sales, geographical proximity of the game, length of lay-off, frequency of getting to bowls, etc. I think this game really falls into that category. I think we already everything there is to know about the respective on-field abilities of these two sides, its all about capping the mental game, and I don’t have the answers yet.
December 12th, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Some movement today, in particular at BM. Most of it was either in games I don’t care about, or contrary to my leans meaning its beneficial. No need to rush more plays.
December 13th, 2011 at 2:15 am
I don’t know, this one feels like a rush job. We’ll see…
TOLEDO, Ohio — Toledo has hired offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as its new coach.
It’s the first head coaching job for the 32-year-old Campbell who was named the school’s interim on Friday after Tim Beckman announced he was leaving for Illinois.
Toledo officials moved quickly to hire Campbell, though, announcing the move Monday night after Beckman said last week that he wanted Campbell to join him with the Illini.
At a news conference announcing his hiring, Campbell called the position “an opportunity of a lifetime,” noting his morning had started in Chicago.
“But the winds of change quickly brought me back,” he said, “and there’s no place I’d rather be than right here right now with this group of people.”
Campbell has been at Toledo the past three seasons and before that had coached at Bowling Green and Mount Union.
He said being a head coach has always been his “golden dream” and that he looks forward to the ultimate goal of bringing the Mid-American Conference championship back to Toledo in 2012.
He said he expected to be questioned due to his young age, telling reporters “age is just a number … I’ve been a leader of men my whole life.”
The Rockets averaged 42 points per game this season, best in the MAC and eighth nationally. In fact, they twice topped 60 points this season.
Beckman was 21-16 in three seasons. The Rockets went 8-4 this year and will play in the Military Bowl against Air Force (7-5).
Campbell coached the offensive line at Bowling Green for two seasons before moving to Toledo, where he also coached the line. Before that, he spent two seasons as the offensive coordinator and line coach at Mount Union, winning consecutive Division III championships with the Purple Raiders.
Announcing the hiring, athletic director Mike O’Brien called Campbell “a true champion.”
“Matt Campbell epitomizes what being a Rocket is all about,” he said. “That is taking care of business in the classroom, making good decisions socially and competing for championships on the football field.”
Campbell, a native of Massillon, Ohio, played on three national championship teams at Mount Union in 2000, 2001 and 2002. He was twice named the Ohio Athletic Conference’s best defensive lineman.
His father was a high school football coach in northeast Ohio.
Beckman on Friday called Campbell one of the brightest young minds in college football, and perhaps that’s fitting at Toledo, where there has been a pretty good history of football coaches.
Gary Pinkel spent 10 years with the Rockets before going to Missouri. He replaced Nick Saban, who is now at Alabama, by way of Michigan State, LSU and the NFL’s Miami Dolphins.
And now, Beckman is on to the Big Ten.
December 14th, 2011 at 11:02 pm
I think I am current with these openings:
Penn State and Pitt are the only remaining AQ spots.
Still need to fill in Akron, Hawaii, USM, Toledo, and Houston from FCS.
December 15th, 2011 at 1:18 am
Hawaii Bowl: now that we have numbers, I can begin to formulate an opinion. My lean here is going to be a semi-heavy toward the Wolfpack. It is absolutely one of those situations where I will be on the MLD or not on the side at all. If USM is playing focused/inspired football they can make those 6 seem rather small. However, I tend to think we see a lack luster performance here. I think the Houston game was their bowl, and now you have a coaching transition as well, all while trying to get hormonal 20 year olds on the beaches of Hawaii to care about a bowl game nobody will remember a month from now. That total looks about right, probably won’t mess with it. Would strongly prefer 2:1 or better to back the Pack.
Independence Bowl: North Carolina’s offense is very hot n cold. Only when Renner is on the money are they a threat. Bernard is what he is, but a running back can never win a game by themselves, they need a good OL, and the threat of a passing game to limit the number of defenders they see. Missouri is one of the very few programs in the Big 12 to make a concerted effort to play defense. You then combine Missouri’s run based attack, which is struggling somewhat with personnel changeover, a good UNC defense and you end up with a moving clock and not many big plays. This could easily resemble an early season game for these two, a la UNC-Louisville or Missouri-Miami, OH. Heavy lean to the under. As long as I don’t get shut out on the first 3 or 4 bowl bets I will probably add this one. Hopefully it will stay above 52 until then. From a side perspective I have a mild and mostly disinterested opinion that UNC can keep this close, and a lower scoring game is generally better for a dog. I do have a preference to the total over the side though in this case.
December 15th, 2011 at 1:59 am
Little Cesar’s Bowl: Lean here is to Purdue, with a milder lean to the OVER. WMU is near the top of my disappointment list. I thought they had the most complete team in the MAC, with the most balanced offense, and one of the better coaches based on his long tenure. After the first half of the season that stuff seemed plausible, but then it became apparent that almost none of that was true. Their defense was brutal, in fact they quit defending altogether for vast stretches, and they are totally unable to run the football for reasons that I don’t really get. The personnel should theoretically be there for it. At this point the entire team is made up of Alex Carder and Jordan White. If those two aren’t connecting 10 times they have no shot. And I have to believe that while Purdue is sub-standard as Big Ten teams go, they should be able to come up with an answer for this one. The Boilers can and will run it effectively here. I have my concerns about Danny Hope and his band of wandering idiots, but these pts are layable under a field goal. If they can beat Illinois, Ohio State, and nearly Penn State on the road, then I will just have to be willing to overlook the Rice debacle and pretend that it never happened.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:41 am
This Temple total is really starting to shoot skyward, not sure I totally understand it. I do like the over – hence why I played it, but I don’t love the over. I can’t recommend that anyone still be betting it, although in the final result the difference between 46.5 (open) and low 50′s isn’t that great once the game plays itself out. One fluke TD here or there makes up the gap of course.
The one I am more perplexed by is the Ohio move. They are going to be a favorite by the time all is said and done. There is no coach who screws my ass quite like Frank Solich so it would be apropos if his first ever bowl win were to come against me. If I could have ended up playing USU as a money line dog I am going to be pissy for a week. (insert angry face here)
December 15th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
I like Marshall. I played that. I really like the Wyoming total as well, and the only reason I didn’t play it is because I’m not real keen on totals these days, though I will play 2 or 3 since it’s bowl season. Weather was a concern; that’s why I didn’t play it early. Looks like it will be decent for Albuquerque for this time of year, but no way to tell that 2 weeks out.
The Ohio move doesn’t surprise me. To me, it looks sharp. That’s just because my lean was Ohio, I guess. Ohio was never going to get into the range I could play them, but I just prefer their balance and their QB. Neither team can defend effectively.
December 16th, 2011 at 9:40 am
apropos ……… bringing the heat!
The TCU game is one of the tougher ones to cap this season. I am sure I will find the wrong side by kickoff.
Good luck . almost here.
December 16th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Good luck . almost here.
You have no idea. This is bullshit with just one game in the last 12 days. I am going into withdrawal. I am experiencing suicidal and anti-social tendencies. If I can just get thru these next 22 hours I can take another hit from my college football crack pipe.
Tie me off man…tie me off!
December 17th, 2011 at 1:39 am
About ten minutes ago, Pinnacle moved the line from USU -1 up to -2. That takes a large amount of money this close to gametime. Could be natural movement back towards the open, could be just some rich Aggie fan, or it could be the first signs that I am on the correct side of the fix, or it could be none of those.
I won’t be surprised at the line when I wake up regardless of what it is, that is just how these small early bowls go.
December 17th, 2011 at 1:46 am
I really don’t feel like 7 touchdowns (and conversions) is asking for too much out of Temple and Wyoming. Let’s see if we can’t start off this bowl season right.
December 17th, 2011 at 9:15 am
Gar, you at least have one other person in the world on USU with you today. So good luck to us. I’m STILL mulling over SDSU, the 4 that is out there now is very tempting, sucker line be damned.
December 17th, 2011 at 9:38 am
LG, best of luck on Utah State. Hopefully you got a much better number than I did.
December 17th, 2011 at 10:20 am
I really feel like taking the under 51.5 in the New Mex Bowl and trying for a middle, but I don’t have the experience to know if: A) 4.5 pts is enough to be +EV in a college game or B) how many “critical” numbers you need to be covering. 49 is critical, 47 and 48 happen some with 51, not a lot of 50′s.
December 17th, 2011 at 11:25 am
That fucking idiot Greg Brandon strikes again. Calling a totally gratuitous and unnecessary throw-back play when their base offense was moving the ball.
December 17th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Don’t anybody ask me what Wyoming is trying to do on offense, because I don’t have the answers.
No urgency whatsoever. They appear to me, to be more interested in using up the rest of the half, than scoring a touchdown.
December 17th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Never seen a kick hit both uprights. Seen it hit an upright then cross bar, but never both uprights. McManus hit the upright on one of his XP’s too. These guys are determined to make it interesting.
December 17th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Nothing better than 2 TD’s to end a half for an OVER!
December 17th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
I really feel like taking the under 51.5 in the New Mex Bowl and trying for a middle, but I don’t have the experience to know if: A) 4.5 pts is enough to be +EV in a college game or B) how many “critical” numbers you need to be covering. 49 is critical, 47 and 48 happen some with 51, not a lot of 50’s.
I can answer this, since I did it for a few years.
1.25 was actually enough to cancel out your -110 vig (back in the day). These days, with the higher scoring, that might be 1.3-1.4.
That assumes all numbers are the same, which they aren’t. There aren’t “critical” numbers for totals the way there are for sides, but 48, 49, and 51 are all “important” numbers.
The most meaningful answer I can give is to a question you didn’t ask. I just include it for the benefit of whatever readers we have that are more casually involved with this stuff than we are. Never try to middle for the sake of trying to middle when that wasn’t your original intent. Don’t cancel out a strong bet. Doesn’t matter if you get 10 points.
December 17th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Thank you Jesus Christ for not letting me try the middle.
LMAO!!!
December 17th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
I can already sense this Ohio/Utah St. game is going to end badly. Why did we have to bring up Wisky/TCU – feels similar.
December 17th, 2011 at 5:57 pm
LG, this was a gross one. Out-gained em, but the Aggies didn’t take advantage of their chances. I hate Frank Solich.
Not that it makes me feel any better, but at least getting the bad number didn’t matter. I saw Ohio -1 for about 2 seconds, don’t know anyone who bet it.
December 17th, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Just another loss in amazing fashion.
I saw Ohio -1 for a few as well before they were talking about the “severity” of Brazill’s meniscus tear and it went back the other way.
As soon as USU didn’t even try to field that punt from Ohio an got pinned at their own 9 or whatever is us I knew it was over right then and there. A couple of worthless runs and then played not to lose to absolute perfection.
December 17th, 2011 at 11:51 pm
I’m not altogether sure what to make of today. At halftime of Temple-Wyoming I figured I had an easy winner. With 3 minutes to go, I figured I had no shot. You could argue it one way or the other as to whether or not I deserved it.
Same to, I think, for Utah State. They had more than enough chances to put it away, so even though they probably should have won based on the box score its not as if I can cry foul, Ohio made the plays and USU did not. When you out-gain somebody by 100 yards and average almost 7 yards per carry you would like to think that is enough to cover a field goal, but that also assumes you can be clutch on 4th and 6. Like Lou Holtz says, they don’t give you any points for crossing the 20, you have to cross the goal line.
I think in the final analysis, 1-1 is probably a fair result.
December 19th, 2011 at 2:22 am
Having some difficulties with this Hawaii Bowl. I am looking for reasons to play Reno, don’t want to lay points in this bowl. Only the Warriors can win this game as a chalk, because they’re at home.
USM beat me 3 weeks in a row. The only game of theirs I won was @ UVA, which in hindsight looks even better.
I only recall being involved with Reno on 2 occasions. Faded them against NMSU and LT and thus got a split. Would prefer Fajardo and a healthy Shane Anderson. Both were expected back for Idaho and neither played, so I don’t know exactly what to believe even though it is generally believed Fajardo will be the guy.
USM correlates to the OVER, while Reno correlates to the UNDER. For all my criticisms of CUSA, the Mustard Buzzards have played and beaten good teams, while the Pack have not. They beat the 7 worst teams on their schedule (mostly at home) and lost to the 4 bowl teams they faced (and Texas Tech.) Southern Miss is clearly closer to LT, USU, Boise, Oregon, and TT then they are to NMSU, Idaho, SJSU, etc. USM does have the whole coaching thing, and after the Houston game I just can’t get a sense of whether or not they really care much about football.
December 19th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
So help me God, TCU is down to 9.5 and Boise is down to 13.5. How am I supposed to get away from these hands? The hooks are just begging for money on the favorites.
December 20th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
After Saturday, my heart cannot take another coin flip. I ask that this game be decided by the end of the 3Q. Of course I would prefer to win, but if the Herd are going to lose I hope they spit the bit completely and get rocked by 4 touchdowns. I don’t want to be sitting on a moose dick all night.
I am curious to see how dogs of less than a FG perform. It is always attractive to take a favorite at less than 3 because you feel like you’re getting the better side and it should be easy to cover, but over time I bet I have lost as many -2.5s as I have won, and its gross how many times the favorite has found a way to win by 1 or 2. We will track it this bowl season.
Utah State -2.5 = loser
Purdue -2.5
Toledo, Texas, and FSU are real close
BYU -2
Rutgers -2
Illinois -2
Vanderbilt -2.5
Auburn -1.5
South Car -2.5
Florida -2.5
Michigan -2.5
Arkansas State -1.5
If you make every play I just listed, I bet you lose money (5-6 or worse). We will see how good my intuition is.
December 20th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Marshall is evidently a big game for the site. Horses, Matador, and I all have them in one regard or another, and Paul needs them to play great defense.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Starting at the 30 sounds good…
December 20th, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Freshman always over-throw wide open receivers. Deep balls are the biggest area of improvement for a QB as they mature, and decision making.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Go for it.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I hate Danny Kannell.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:26 pm
That catch was retarded good…
December 20th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Hey, he made it. A college kicker, on a team that I bet on, made a field goal.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:44 pm
That was really poor defense on that third down play right there. Hilton is really one of the few guys you have to look out for, and you know they wanted him on the slant. Awful to not take that away.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Agree that 3rd down pickup was way too easy. I like the way Marshall is playing overall but we’re going to need Cato to play better obviously.
December 20th, 2011 at 5:51 pm
I also agree on your ‘go for it’ comment above. I thought for sure they would after taking the shot on 3rd down.
December 20th, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Right, in the context of that 3rd and 1 call, the decision to punt was real weird.
I think this MU offensive line should be able to roll over the top of this FIU front seven, especially later in the game. I think 3rd and 4 (like the one about to happen) can still be a running down for instance.
December 20th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
A traditional draw play picks up that first down and maybe scores. What a horrible play call IMO.
December 20th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
I agree they should be running the ball more just in general, but I’ll take what we got right now.
Unfortunately, I have to head out; i won’t be catching the score and plan to watch (and learn my fate) off my dvr later on tonite. Please…no texts.
December 20th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
LOL, fair enough, enjoy the holiday party.
December 20th, 2011 at 7:19 pm
How many more times am I going to be subjected to watching Marshall put linebackers and DE’s on FIU’s receivers when its 3rd and long?
December 20th, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Marshall better win this game. I can’t rationalize having spent a night watching this horror show if I don’t get a payday out of it.
December 20th, 2011 at 8:22 pm
Not going to end pretty if Marshall has to punt this ball back…
December 20th, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Wow, what a play call to ice it. Nice call on the Herd.
December 20th, 2011 at 8:52 pm
Yeah, mac, I just about shat myself, but other than that everything is great.
Kind of wish I were horses getting to see it all over again for the first time.
December 20th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
Just got done with it…nice hit on the ML Gar.
I will have nothing on the Poinsettia Bowl with a slight lean to La Tech due solely to motivation. Quotes I read from couple seniors not too encouraging but nothing to hang my hat on.
December 21st, 2011 at 6:36 pm
No way I can bet the TCU second half after that INT and TD. They are being outgained 2:1 but are tied. TCU may play better in the second half but maybe LT won’t turn it over anymore.
December 21st, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Concur completely.
December 21st, 2011 at 7:21 pm
This is really everything you expect in a TCU bowl game.
December 21st, 2011 at 7:48 pm
I think TCU comes back and wins by 3.
December 21st, 2011 at 8:37 pm
That is almost exactly what I thought would happen. Feels like a win to avoid this game. I leaned OVER and favorite and would have been amazingly frustrated, annoyed, angry, and ready to just quit for the year. Now I am semi-rejuvenated. My instincts saved me one there.
Of course I’m more than a little pissed off that I passed on the second half, but I have learned something about myself, which is that I will never be happy unless I always get my way. Unfortunately, in life, we don’t always get our way.
December 22nd, 2011 at 7:55 am
TCU +36 yards, +3 FD’s and turnovers were even.
Horned Frogs definitely had a look or two to get over the number, but the ‘dog was the right play in this game. Still not going to beat up myself too much for laying off the ‘dog, as TCU was the superior team just from the eye test. It’s just that it’s TCU…slow start…and then when they would approach getting over the number, they’d fumble a punt or have a key penalty. Typical Horned Frogs.
Tonite’s game sets up similarly, but Boise not prone to these letdowns and while I know the Bulldogs would come to play, not sure what to make of the Sun Devils. Just a party trip to Las Vegas with a lame duck coach?
December 22nd, 2011 at 11:00 am
Everything that you have to hate and distrust about TCU as a favorite, are some of the things that make Boise so good to bet on in said role.
Unlike TCU, Boise State:
-does not start slow and act disinterested for 30 minutes
-turn it over, or have drive killing penalties right as they begin to assert dominance
-have any reservation about running the score up, and this starts with the head coach
-has a nasty streak/inferiority complex that makes them over-perform relative to ability rather than be less than the sum of their individual parts
-has a sense of relevance, importance, and history, and will have no problem sending off a senior QB with the best and biggest numbers of his life
Unfortunately, while I am a smart guy, I’m not so much smarter than everybody else out there, and the line has figured out all of those things out by now, so I’m not sure I can lay 14.5. The play was supposed to be made two days ago at 13.5 but I hesitated because I wanted to see TCU fail to cover to make sure I didn’t play the wrong one. Maybe if the juice gets to a spot where I can buy it back to 14 I will add this one.
December 22nd, 2011 at 11:04 am
What piece of news did I miss on the USM-Reno game?
December 22nd, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Huh?
December 22nd, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Jumped at least 2 points today at every book. I am missing out on about 60 cents worth of goodies if the Pack win.
December 22nd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Boise locked and loaded. If it loses, it loses, but I like it and I’m going to roll with it. No apologies and no second guessing (yeah, right.)
December 22nd, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Ok, now I see that. Have to assume it’s due to some Fajardo news I can’t find. Is Lantrip even healthy enought to play? Could be reduced to Magleby at this point, but like i said, i can’t find anything.
Good luck on Boise St; as I said yesterday, I lean ASU but that is strictly from a PR standpoint and the intangibles in this game are too unknown for me but they can only work against ASU I think. Boise St will play hard because that is what Boise St does. ASU may or may not play hard, but you know they’ll do some dumb things.
December 22nd, 2011 at 6:31 pm
I can honestly say that I think ASU is lucky to just be down 25 right now.
December 22nd, 2011 at 6:40 pm
It appears you have navigated these two games quite well.
December 22nd, 2011 at 7:14 pm
One might call that a big play, provided it stands.
December 22nd, 2011 at 7:25 pm
I was just getting in the door after the play was ran. Was it a bad throw or nice defense?
I see the boxer says BSU has turned it over 2 times to start the quarter. Trying to keep the Devils in this one it would appear.
December 22nd, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Some unbelievably one-sided rushing numbers, but that perhaps is no surprise.
December 22nd, 2011 at 7:30 pm
It was a 4th down pass that he underthrew by a lot…but db still made fine play.
December 23rd, 2011 at 6:30 pm
Final review for Ind Bowl:
As noted in horses’ thread, I have a lean to the Under and Underdog in this UNC-Mizz game. Missouri will have at least a semi-difficult time scoring. Franklin plays in fits and starts and you never quite know which you will get, the one who played the first half against Texas Tech, or the one who came out after halftime. He has had his moments, and as a sophomore he will only get better. Problem is, the average SEC defense is a whole lot meaner than the average B12 defense, so that will be a change for the young lad. They do lose Josey, but I’m not so sure that the others (who he initially replaced when they were hurt) aren’t every bit as good. Plenty of weapons out wide.
North Carolina isn’t so different from the Tigers in many ways. Young QB who is prone to bad stretches but also can make plays, difference is he does it with his arm, not his feet. They will also have difficulty scoring, but that is just because of who and how they are. Plenty of wide receiving targets, Renner needs to find them. Bernard is solid. Defense, particularly the front seven is good. The secondary can be forgiving at times – Clemson and GT come to mind, but facing the triple option creates those opportunities, and equally Clemson has more explosiveness than Missouri.
Interesting note, neither team has their best kicker. Barth has been out a long time, Ressell injured more recently but listed as “expected to miss”. Poor guys, must have gotten a bit too much sand in their pussies.
I think this needs to be played on the spread if you do take the dog. Just feels like a potential donkeyish game where the pts could be disproportionately valuable to the ML, although I do see 200′s now which is nice. Call it 20-17 Tigers. Hotly contested bowl games are both well within the pedigree of these two sides.
December 23rd, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Nothing to add to my brief Purdue-WMU write up from above.
I can barely express with words in the English language, how disinterested I am in capping, wagering, or watching the NCSU vs. Louisville game.
Toledo-AFA is a big time dichotomy game in many ways. I wanted to make Air Force the favorite, but I knew better, I was sure the books would try to get sneaky and make the higher powered offense the chalk. This game feels a lot like the Houston-AFA games from a few seasons back. As my buddy Paul Stone mentioned, the problem with Toledo is you are asking a bunch of average athletes who don’t like to play focused defense to play assignment football. It would stand to reason that the academies would be held in check when the other team has a month to get ready, but time and time again they score points in bowls. Perfectly defending the triple option in theory and in practice are different.
I do worry somewhat about the Falcon’s defense. They aren’t a great unit, and have had significant injury problems throughout the year. It is certainty true that they played better down the stretch, but its equally true that their opposition didn’t have play-makers like Adonis Thomas, Morgan Williams, or Eric Page.
Lean here is to the dog, this would certainly be a money line situation rather than points. Not a game that can be bet UNDER, but the total is made accordingly high to the expectation of points, so its probably the side or pass.
December 23rd, 2011 at 9:04 pm
The Air force game is so interesting to me. I suppose because I don’t have a particularly good feel for either club. Is Jefferson going to be 100% there?
December 24th, 2011 at 10:25 am
kyle, I read a few articles in the Colorado Springs Gazette, including one that was entirely about Jefferson and how he will be setting/tying records by starting the bowl game. Not one peep about health issues.
Now whether you consider that good or bad is a matter of personal opinion and which team you are hoping to bet on. As good as he can be through the air, he isn’t as great a running threat as the #2 kid. Maybe he just doesn’t like it.
December 24th, 2011 at 10:30 am
Now the Nevada line is back from 8.5/310 to 7/245. Don’t ask me what is happening because I don’t have the answers. Not going to be real happy though if I lose a unit just because a couple retards moved the line without knowing what they are doing. I know this sounds like weird degenerate whining (and it is) but I almost hope I lose this one considering I got the worst possible number.
December 24th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
Fuck you Nevada. Throw a pick in the RZ then give up a terrible fake punt after you had it defensed correctly. Just a brutal and ridiculous exchange of events. Now they are on their own 6 to start the next drive.
Probably won’t be back here until late tonight. Hope everyone has a great Christmas Eve and a Merry Christmas.
December 24th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
Made a good enough play to win, but they didn’t win, shit happens.
December 24th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Jesus the WAC sucks.
December 26th, 2011 at 12:39 am
Seeing some juice moving up on Missouri, even at this late hour. Maybe I’ll get lucky and find a 6 on UNC. Leaning just a bit more to the side than total, but still largely undecided.
December 26th, 2011 at 11:19 am
I have to trust my instincts on this game today, and my instincts are telling me to just let a half play out and then get involved. I would like to think that I know what will happen, but can’t be too sure. Leans remain under/dog.
December 26th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Holiday Bowl: The popular choices seem to be under and Cal. I’m not so sure that I don’t lean opposite on both. I am not impressed or sold on Cal’s defense. They didn’t limit a single good offense that they faced. Their talent on that side of the ball has woefully under-performed for a half decade and shows no signs of letting up. Then the question becomes whether or not Texas’ offense qualifies as being “good” and I’m not real sure. I think the effectiveness of the Horn’s running game determines many things in this game.
Everyone knows what I think of Maynard (hint: he is a turd) so it will be on Sofele and the #2 guy who is solid is as well (Anderson?). I do like the Texas defense a bit, but the Baylor and Oklahoma games were horrifying to watch…I just can’t get this game under.
Leans are OVER, Texas, UNDER, Cal in that order.
December 26th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
It would appear that my nose may have sniffed out another bad game today. Hopefully this is a sign that my sixth sense for land mines is getting better.
December 26th, 2011 at 11:01 pm
Lean to Notre Dame, pts or ML is something I don’t know yet. FSU is totally unable to run the ball. If Manuel is anything less than stellar they won’t be able to move the ball. Notre Dame’s defense isn’t as good as they should be based on their recruiting rankings, but they are still at least as good as your typical ACC stop unit. I won’t say that Notre Dame’s defense is quite as good as Florida’s, but that box score was very revealing in the UF-FSU rivalry game. FSU is still unable to get out of their own way. If I didn’t know better I would say that Xavier Lee must still be running their offense.
For their part, Notre Dame can’t keep from stepping on their own dicks either. So you have two semi-incompetent teams who will take the field and have a battle of attrition to see who can make the fewest severe fuck ups. I don’t have a problem with Tommy Rees per se, he isn’t the reason they lost repeatedly, but I will say that he has hit somewhat of a ceiling. I think Hendrix wins the job going into next year, but that is just a guess. I love Michael Floyd. He needs to see 9 or 10 balls in this game. Even as a decoy he can be effective. This will be his last chance to impress the scouts and I happen to think he can do it.
Would love to find a reason to play the OVER, but I can’t. I think the FSU defensive line will shut down Notre Dame’s rushing and force Rees to beat them which is dicey at best. I think much the same happens on the other end too.
Let’s go with: Notre Dame, UNDER, Florida State, OVER (in order)
December 26th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
Alamo: I would say there is a greater than 50% chance that I end up on the Washington Huskies money line, but I need these assholes to stop knocking the line down because I’m really not in the mood to take less than 300. There are some guys on Baylor’s D who are listed as questionable, I think that is why it is dropping.
I bet UW against Nebraska and Stanford and got rocked both times. Then I took WSU in the Apple Cup. Suffice to say, these guys owe me some money.
These teams maybe aren’t all that different. Both are offensively dynamic, and both have swiss cheese defenses. I won’t waste any time writing about Griffin – I have nothing bad to say anyway other than I think his Heisman is a motivator for the Fuskies.
I will say that I like Keith Price and as far as I know he is 100% healthy now. The other factor I like about Washington is that Polk is a beast and can eat up that clock and keep Briles’ weapons on the sideline. Sarkisian is no wizz, but I think he knows that in this match up, fewer plays and a shorter game are better for his side.
Let’s call it: Washingon, OVER, Baylor. No possibility of betting on the UNDER regardless of the total.
December 27th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
I’m not going to waste hard earned money guessing on whether or not Purdue wants to play. That is what this is all about, they are the better and more complete side. I will watch 30 minutes and see what shakes down.
December 27th, 2011 at 11:31 pm
Just tracking the micro favs.
Utah State -2.5 = loser
Purdue -1.5 = winner
NC State -2 = winner
Toledo, Texas, and FSU are real close
BYU -2
Rutgers -2
Illinois -2
Vanderbilt -2.5
Auburn -1.5
South Car -2.5
Florida -2.5
Michigan -2.5
Arkansas State -1.5
December 28th, 2011 at 12:12 am
Tulsa is now favored which amuses the hell out of me. I will give that game a very brief capping, but I have tough time imagining a bet on it. Lean is to the Cougars, but Tulsa is playing some defense this year for a change and that is a nasty combination to fade when you consider what their offense is capable of. Having a healthy Kinne means the world to this team, and it showed towards the latter half of the season. I suppose I would say BYU, Under, Over, Tulsa in that order.
December 28th, 2011 at 12:16 am
Pinstripe Bowl: horses likes Rutgers, Pstone likes ISU. I don’t have a solid opnion other than I expect it to stay under, but really can’t play it at the current number its just too low. Here again I will give it a brief capping, but I am going in with a mind to not bet this game so anything I find that suggests otherwise I will mention in this space. I have an inherent distrust of both quarterbacks in this game at this stage in their careers.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:16 am
Line moves tend to be pretty good in Rutgers games, fwiw.
Would also say that Tulsa deserves to be the favorite in that game. Would like to hear your take on why the Cougars handle them.
I have a lot of thoughts on the Texas/Cal affair but I think when you start looking at Texas defense it becomes clear how good they are when you go through their schedule and see how they competed vs some of the elite offenses. Also, I have a distinct memory of watching the USC front seven completely destroying California and Texas has a better front seven than that. California defenses played against: 101,103, 94 , 60, 54, 31 ,91, 82, 84, 25 and 90 …. vs the better defenses they not surprisingly did not perform nearly as well. Would wager that Texas has the better defense than any of those squads and they have certainly seen many offenses already that are not only superior to California but match up better against them than California does. I am not seeing the love for California that seems to be permiating through the gambling forums tonight.
December 28th, 2011 at 11:32 am
I can’t explain the Cal adoration either.
I will get you a couple thoughts on BYU later tonight. It mostly has to do with them playing great defense down the stretch, and the they they can shorten that game if they so choose.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
With you on Air Force Gar. Think the wrong team is favored. Another angle is their coach is gone, which can’t be a good thing. Does anyone have stats on how well teams do in their bowls when their head coach skips out to take another job?
Happens often enough. Think it’s a raw deal for the players. And all just to get a couple weeks ahead on recruiting at the new job.
December 28th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Obviously meant to say that Toledo’s coach is gone.
December 28th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Great start by Air Force. Already getting raped in special teams and turnover battles.
December 28th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
This game is stupid.
December 28th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
These teams suck.
December 28th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
The AFA play calling and execution has been so abysmal I can’t even say they deserve to win anymore. Honestly, I have no idea why you pass twice after gaining 4 yards on first down. Just a mystery to me.
December 28th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Well…you don’t see that every day.
Get this kick.
December 28th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Well it took a long time, but I finally have something to go in the moose account on the other side of the ledger.
December 28th, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Personally, I don’t have a problem with the decision to go for 2, in fact I supported it, but I hate the choice to try a fake XP. You should put the offense out there.
AFA was the better team, but didn’t deserve to win.
December 28th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Troy Calhoun got absolutely dominated by the kid from Toledo who was in high school around the same time I was. Every decision he made in the 4Q was the wrong one, including the choice to stop running the offense after 3 quarters. They went hurry up, and starting slinging the ball around all over the place. Just terrible.
Both of my money line dog losses in bowl season were games where the dog lost it rather than the favorite winning it. And that has been in keeping with the last week of the season as well with the performances of Cuse and UConn. Thinking I may just mail it in from a MLD standpoint and bet some spreads/totals.
December 28th, 2011 at 7:35 pm
clown, regarding BYU I like the way their defense has played over the second half of the year, which coincided with the emergence of Nelson under center and Alisa out of the backfield. Everything fell into place at more or less the same time (as so often happens). It was kind of the Oregon State game that got them on a roll. Only blemish was TCU, and TCU is worlds better than Tulsa, no matter how poorly they may play in a particular game.
What makes this a difficult handicap is that this is probably the best offense that BYU has seen, and they use a lot of tricks typical of these newfangled offenses like hurry-up and all sorts of misdirection. I trust BYU to be assignment sound, but at certain spots on the field they are likely to be at an athletic disadvantage. Mormon boys aren’t the fastest around.
I want to know if Tulsa’s defense can stay patient and get themselves off the field. I foresee a few blown assignments in the secondary that allows Apo/Hoffman to get some looks deep.
December 28th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
Music City: a quick check of the teams that Miss State beat to become bowl eligible is good for a laugh or two. Memphis, La Tech, UAB, Kentucky, UT-martin and Mississippi. Their 6 losses were against teams comparable to or significantly better than Wake Forest so its no slam dunk and I don’t mean to imply that it is, but I think Wake is the clear cut choice if you are looking for a side in this game. I suppose its possible that MSU could just go SEC-style and power it down their throats, but that hasn’t worked much for them recently and a lot of it has to do with an absence of a vertical passing game. I don’t know if it will be Relf or Russell because I don’t care much. Relf runs better, Russell tosses it better.
While WF scores in fits and starts, this isn’t a vintage SEC West defense that the Mulldogs possess. On the other side of the ball, I do like Price. Their running attack isn’t what it once was under Grobe, but they are decent through the air with Givens, and Campanaro et al. Didn’t see as much of them as I wanted to, but I thought their OL held up alright.
Insight bowl: I am slowly rounding into form on thinking that Iowa may be bettable here. But I will need to figure out what I think about Oklahoma, not just in terms of motivation but in terms of figuring out what the starting line up is looking like these days. Their season swung on a bad first half against Tech, followed by some bad luck in the attrition department. Iowa lost Coker for this game, and the #2 guy as well I believe. This is a spot where you would like to take the double digit dog, but only if they want to be there and play well, as the are out-classed in athleticism by the Sooners. I would think this means more to Iowa than OU though.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:41 am
My under loss was painless in being so wrong on that air force debacle. I disagreed with going for two points. Felt they were the better team and that going to overtime would benefit them. Felt that Toledo scoring was almost always the result of big plays and that afa was far more probable to get a good 25 yard drive than toledo. I also think it is admitting to your team that you arent as good as the opponent. Which is fine if you are boise state playing oklahoma in the fiesta and dont think that you are but not when you are afa against toledo.
Thanks for the thoughts on the cougars. I will remember to factor in recency when I look at that game. Figure you have to anyway with how much that team morphed in style over the course of the year.
Oklahoma is an unbettable side in that game .. so just assume they win by 20.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
I’m just really annoyed right now, I feel like any of my three losses in this bowl season could have been wins. I think that is just how bowl season works. All the results are ridiculous whether you pick it right or not. Tuesday was a perfect example, I leaned to the favorites and overs, all of which came in but they all came in by ridiculous events and I was probably right not to bet them. Then yesterday I made a great pick on AFA, but they give up a pick six, a KOR-TD, and had a farcical 2-pt play. So the one day the bullshit went against me was the only game I bet. There really is never any justice in betting world.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Warning! Stream of consciousness/philosophical thoughts from a guy who isn’t smart enough to do such things! Warning!
Yesterday it was clear that Air Force played better, but they didn’t deserve to win in my judgement. That is a really weird dichotomy, especially to any regular sports fan who doesn’t cap, imagine trying to explain that to a wife or girlfriend. I would say yesterday’s game is an appropriate fit to 2011 from a betting perspective. From a profit standpoint, this will be either my best or second best season; partly because I put in more time in the off season, partly because I am betting more money now, partly because I am rather aggressive with my bankroll, and partly because I worked with my consigliere/chairman of the board to come up with an improved business plan.
Interesting then, that is also the same year in which I have finally determined that I cannot be a professional full time gambler. I just don’t have what it takes. You would think I would have concluded that years ago as I tried different methods and tried betting on every single sport and kept coming up short, but I was always able to tell myself, ‘if I had more time, or more money, or more experience I could make it work’. This year after being unemployed, I had all of those things, and while the results were significantly improved they were still well short of what a reasonable person would need to raise a family. Even 10 years from now if I am betting 5 times as much, it still wouldn’t hack it. So alas, I am going to be a 40-hr a week grinder like everyone else, who has a nice part time job on the side, and enjoys his sports, and his hobbies, and maybe I can retire a little earlier than most someday. That is how I see it playing out from here. I have endless respect for folks like clowncar who can make it work. And maybe the truth is, that sports betting is a poor medium for being a pro gambler. Maybe poker, or horse racing, or collecting and reselling comps is the way to go.
I do expect however, that over the course of time, I will improve my capping skills by not having the distractions of other sports and the corresponding research and time requirements that go with them. So by concentrating mostly on football, in a weird way I will probably do that much better overall. Leveraging strengths and limiting weaknesses.
December 29th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Glad you laid off the Irish. Would have been another tough ML beat.
December 29th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
Bad choice to pass on UW ML. Win or lose it was the play.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
I would have been angry enough to smash a kitten’s head if I had played Washington +pts. These fucking bowls are all bogus. ND up 14-0 against a helpless team, can’t hold their water. Washington with an 18 point lead in the third quarter, still scores 2 more TDs, and still can’t cover. Think about how ridiculous that is for a moment.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:02 am
Yeah I had both ND and UW on the ML. Tough losses. Not to mention in CBB Oklahoma up 10 with 5:00 to go and blowing it. And in NBA, Dallas losing on a last second buzzer beater and Denver tied with Portland with a few minutes left only to get outscored 13-3 to end the game. That was my night in a nutshell.
Re ND, I knew Rees was going to get picked on the final drive. If there is a guy who is less clutch in the red zone than Rees I’d like to see him. Brian Kelly must just want to strangle that kid. Even the TD pass he threw to Floyd would have been picked off if not for Floyd making a great play to take it away from the DB, lol.
With Washington, I actually don’t feel that bad about the loss. When they were up 42-24 early in the third, that was only about half the scoring in the game. Yes, it’s ridiculous, but not really that surprising given how bad UW’s defense is.
Even with that lead I still felt UW needed to score on every possession and when Polk fumbled it seemed there was an inevitability to them losing.
Oh well, today I’m going to piss away my money on Wake +220 and Iowa +450.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:23 am
By the way, Gar, I think you should keep an open mind about your future, because you’re good enough to be a professional sports bettor. I don’t know how much you bet per game, but you pretty much always make at least 20 units a year in CFB. Even if that was all you bet and you work your way up to a bankroll big enough to bet say $5k a game, then that’s a pretty good living. Maybe it will take 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, I have no idea, but eventually you’ll be making enough to do this full time.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:10 am
I was angry enough to break out the Makers Mark about 9:35PM last nite. Unlike Mac, that was a bitter ATS loss, even though it was a small bet.
Re: your stream of consciousness…congratulations on coming to a decision…or more like a realization. No right or wrong here…just a matter of knowing thyself. If you have truly come to this realiziation, it should relieve some stress/anxiety about the whole thing moving forward. In other words, you know this is a hobby and will remain a hobby and you know how it fits into your life. Wouldn’t mind talking more about this after the 9th in case you’re so inclined.
December 30th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
mac, thanks for the nice thoughts. GL on Wake Forest. I have no idea what Miss State is doing on offense right now. You have already taken one bad beat besides – Ed Cunningham is calling the game.
horses, sounds good. I would never turn down a phone call from you.
I will have one or two bets tomorrow. Finally breaking out of my funky little bitch mode after the Air Force game. I leaned RU and BYU both of which won, so I can’t play anything else today or it will lose, that is just how my brain works.
Leans are to both dogs and both overs, we shall see. Miss St and Wake seem to have no interest in scoring.
December 30th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Just tracking the micro favs.
Utah State -2.5 = loser
Purdue -1.5 = winner
NC State -2 = winner
Toledo -3 = loser
Texas -3.5 = winner
FSU -3.5 = winner by the hook
BYU -2 = winner
Rutgers -2 = winner
Illinois -2
Vanderbilt -2.5
Auburn -1.5
South Car -2.5
Florida -2.5
Michigan -2.5
Arkansas State -1.5
Its hilarious because the teams who started as small favs ended up as dogs, but covered anyway. Then you have Toledo which was part and parcel with what being a small bowl favorite is all about. Not one of these games has been a sure thing. Rutgers and NC State are about as big a blowout as you see from games with a spread of 3.
December 31st, 2011 at 11:33 pm
No pending action.
May add a couple more based on line movement and/or new info, although it is possible that investment activities will be concluded for the 2011 fiscal year.
January 3rd, 2012 at 12:39 am
Best decision I made during this bowl season was to mostly stay out of the way. If I had played a lot of my leans, I would have gotten absolutely rocked.
Only 6 dogs have won so far, which is absolutely pitiful. ULL was actually the largest. Wiscy, Reno, LT are about the only ones over 200 that were even close. Most of the medium/large dogs – who were admittedly few in number – got destroyed.
As I look around the various forums, I see massive carnage. If I have ever seen a bowl season with this many sharp sides/line moves being wrong, its certainly been a while. The Big 12 in particular has caused folks problems, starting with Missouri’s better than expected showing. Front door covers by A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor weren’t helpful to most, and then the coup de grace may have been tonight with the stinging, but rightful, failure of the Cowboys in OT.
From here on out, I lean to VT and OVER, WV and UNDER (don’t love the under, but the line has moved too much), Arkansas and OVER, Pitt and UNDER, NIU and OVER, Bama and UNDER.
January 3rd, 2012 at 12:53 am
I would avoid the under in the west virginia game. Both offenses match up well but that isn’t the main reason .. the main reason is that the game might have 160 plays in it and there are too many big plays on the field with these two offenses and these two defenses to sweat out the under. Of course Geno Smith might have under inwhich case you would be doing ok to to under.
Also not a fan of the over in the VT game. Michigan Defense is better now and Denard is uncomfortable in the pocket and can easily be confused by VT and if both teams can ram it then it will still eat clock to do so .. also cant back the over when VT might have foghorn leghorn kicking FG’s when they get stopped. Well I shouldn’t say can’t but I mean it makes it harder when you get the six minute drive and zero pts and you could see that possibility before kickoff.
The Arkansas State-NIU game is one of the more interesting of the bowl season. I think Arkansas State matches up really well with a passing offense that can expose all of those secondary issues with the huskies .. especially their poor linebacking at times in the shorter routes. They also have the 13th ranked rushing defense ( eh opponents ) which matches up decently with what NIU likes to do. I haven’t looked at it fully yet .. and I love me some NIU as they have probably treated me better than any school not named oregon state the last decade but I think caution or a deeper look is in order… at least on my end.
I think the contrarian view of the title game is to take the over this time. I don’t see it. If saban is smart he just kicks the ball out of bounds every time and protects the football. Without the mistakes LSU simply struggles to move the ball. Alabama was the better team last they played in my opinion but not sure LSU hasn’t improved more than bama since then. Tough game and it will be sad that I am boycotting watching it as I prefer defensive football to offensive football.
January 3rd, 2012 at 1:05 am
Thanks for the thoughts. All will be considered. I like the mobility of the two quarterbacks in the VT-UM game. I think both Logan and Shoelaces will be hell on the opposing undisciplined defenses.
January 3rd, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Strong lean to West Virginia? Any thoughts that you might provide?
January 3rd, 2012 at 7:49 pm
1) The way the ‘Neers lost their bowl game last year by crapping all over themselves is weighing on my mind, I wonder if it isn’t weighing on their minds too.
2) While Clemson has looked good for most of the year, they are more than capable of non-participation (see NC State and South Carolina.)
3) Even though Holgorson looks like he just stumbled off the boat after a week long rum cruise, the man knows offense and I trust his adjustments more than I trust Chad Morris. Especially in a game that figures to have very little D.
4) Not sure if I have a good reason for this, but I like Geno better than Tahj.
5) It is a contrarian play and we are due for a dog to win a game.
6) The ACC hasn’t passed the eye test, the Big East has – somewhat surprisingly
Plenty of reasons to like Clemson too, not a lock, just a lean for now.
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:10 pm
and another favorite wins a close game
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Yeah, at this point its just silly.
January 4th, 2012 at 2:13 am
Just looked further into the WV/Clemson game and realized that a lot less games from these two teams were higher scoring than my memory told me. That is why it is always best to check facts. It will be interesting then to see how these teams match up with one another. I think I like my original game plan of letting a half play out. I could see some poor execution early, but ultimately over 60 minutes there is little indicating that either team gets held below around 28 points.
I am passing on the idea of WV because they won’t have Garvin or Garrison. That will take away an experienced body from the secondary, and also make them that much more one-dimensional on offense, respectively. Not that I was expecting big production on the ground against CU anyway, but just the same its nice to have a break away threat at the position.
I don’t see how these bowls can even be capped at this point, so take it with a grain of salt.
January 4th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Added the SMU play. As long as McDermott isn’t hitting Pitt up for big plays I think the total stays down. Against the other good defenses they have faced, the Mustangs were held in check.
Biggest worry might be Sunseri. Don’t want him tossing it around, because it will go for a TD one way or the other. I will be impressed if Pitt has any offensive continuity at all. They didn’t when Graham was here, why would they now.
January 5th, 2012 at 1:53 am
Well that was just one retarded football game tonight.
My leans continue to get rocked. I guess its good they’re leans and not plays.
Like Arkansas and OVER tomorrow night, so if you’re smart you will do a KSU/Under parlay and enjoy the cash.
For Saturday I have the under at 47, not sure which way the number will go. Big East continues to look good, so even though I don’t cap this way very often I think you can expect some favorite money to come in on Pitt.
January 6th, 2012 at 12:29 am
I’m getting rather close to adding Arkansas. Line has moved, but as long as it doesn’t land on 8 or 9 it won’t matter. (Famous last words.)
KSU played in a conference that featured no defense whatsoever, and the one time they did play a team with a halfway decent defense (Sooners) the were put on lockdown and nearly had a season low in points.
I think having an SEC defense with a month to get healthy is a big plus, and I’m sure they want to erase the taste of that LSU game. It was the Tigers and Tide that did the most damage to their defensive rushing numbers, but the skill and size of those OL’s is not present on this KSU line. In reality when you prep for the Wildcats, you are gameplanning as if you are facing the Denver Broncos. They have one guy who can beat, and sometimes he hands off to an average guy. No passing. If Petrino can’t come up with a way of stopping one dude, than I will just have to live with the consequences.
I’m not going to waste time writing up the Ark offense vs KSU defense because I don’t think anyone would seriously argue with me, that the Hogs will move the ball with relative ease. This ought to be one of the most forgiving defenses they have seen all year.
Hopefully God won’t show up here and strike down Tyler Wilson the way he seems to with all of the Broncos opponent’s key players.
January 6th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Should’ve played Arkansas.
January 8th, 2012 at 2:31 am
I am betting NIU for a few reasons:
1) I think the wrong team is favored. The 1.5 would be nice to have if this thing comes down to a 2-pt convo in OT (which is semi-likely) but if I really believe the Huskies are better I should go ML even if the number is small.
2) I believe the wrong is favored primarily because of the NIU offensive line. This unit is above average even by the standards of most AQ schools let alone from a turd conference. I will acknowledge that the Redwolves front seven appears better on paper, but I think that is a function of schedules more than anything. If ASU had faced Montee Ball and 2 triple option teams in the non conference in addition to a conference slate of dynamic offenses their numbers wouldn’t be so shiny.
3) Senior leadership and continuity. NIU, particularly on offense, is a senior laden team. This will finally be Harnish’s last game and I expect them to make an impact and not let up. Arkansas State is no doubt glad to be in a bowl, but they haven’t been there before which could be just as bad as it is good. Also, while many teams in bowl season lose their coach, this one is more significant because Freeze did the play calling himself. This is about the longest layoff possible, so if the old adage about rustiness has any merit you could see 15-20 minutes of donkey ball played. That is the only thing keeping me off the OVER, which is probably in many respects the same as betting the NIU side.
Go Steelers and Go Huskies.
January 8th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Nice job on the totals of late. GL tonight.
January 8th, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Thanks. It was a nice way to finish the year. I may add a bet tomorrow, but doubtful.
I had forgotten the feeling of having the team I bet against cough it up 5 times. I grew used to having my own side do that towards the end of the year.